Peace For Our Time

1938

[British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain waving the Munich Agreement upon returning from the signing ceremony with Adolf Hitler on 30 September 1938.  On 15 March 1939, Germany invaded the remainder of Czechoslovakia, negating the treaty... and by September of 1939 had invaded Poland]

2015

[U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry waving a copy of the Nuclear agreement signed with Iran]

Diplomats love to wave signed agreements.  It is their very raison d'etre!

And when questioned about the content, nature or wisdom of the agreements they are waving, they invariably respond that 'diplomacy is preferable to war'... as if those questioning them (or anyone, for that matter), would actually prefer a military conflict to diplomacy. 

What they fail to acknowledge (or learn from history) is that war is not simply the lack or failure of diplomacy.  War can be caused - even be made inevitable - by seemingly successful diplomacy carried out by inept or poorly matched diplomats.

The only thing required for that outcome is for one party to openly, and desperately, want to finalize an agreement at nearly any cost... and for the other party to leverage that desperation to gain sufficient time to prepare for, and wage, war completely on their own terms.

Hitler was almost ready to wage war in 1938, but needed just a bit more time to complete all the necessary preparations.  Chamberlain, with the best of intentions, graciously provided him with all he required.

If Iran adheres to the agreement that John Kerry was waving so enthusiastically in the photo above, they are still less than a decade from legitimately acquiring nuclear weapons.  

If they do not abide by it, they are just weeks from crossing that threshold.  The glaring problem with the agreement is that it provides Iran longer to consider whether to comply with inspection requests than the time required to develop a nuclear weapon.  You do the math.

One would think that a basic grasp of history would be a prerequisite for a career in diplomacy.  Apparently it is... for Iranian diplomats.