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Thursday, November 22, 2012

Lather, Rinse... Repeat

'I told you so' is neither satisfactory nor sufficient enough to sum up my deep disappointment this morning.

Everything went exactly according to the tried and true formula:

The Instigation:  The media repeatedly referred to the fighting as having lasted for eight days, while studiously ignoring the years of continuous rocket fire on Israel's towns and cities that lead up to this all-to-brief response.

The 'War':  Israel attacks exclusively military and terror targets in a campaign which is both costly and fraught with risk, while the enemy continues to target Israel's civilian population unhindered by any rules whatsoever.

The  World's Response:  Despite years of studiously ignoring the enemy's war crimes (by every definition) of targeting Israel's civilians and using their own population as human shields, the world leaders and bodies, aided and abetted by the media, suddenly stir to life and begin loudly declaring that an immediate cease fire is necessary to restore calm to the region.

The Pressure:  The US, UN and other useful idiots send their representatives to the region and begin applying pressure to Israel to unilaterally de-escallate the violence (with no mention of the ongoing war crimes being committed by the other side).

The capitulation:  Israel finally bends to outside pressure and agrees to cease fire terms.

The 'Cease fire':  At whatever hour the cease fire is to go into effect Israel, and only Israel, stops all military activity.  The enemy continues to fire un-answered volleys of missiles for the next few hours so as to demonstrate to their own people, and to Israel, exactly who is still standing at the end.

The victory lap:  The enemy claims victory, receives congratulatory messages from all of the other despot leaders, and declares a holiday during which their population dances in the street, pass out sweets and trumpet to the world their triumph over the evil Zionists. 

The Coda:  The rest of the world (which forced the cease fire in the first place): pats itself on the back for having quieted the quarrelling children in the back seat of the family car and begins writing fat aid checks to the Israel's enemy to help them rebuild (or re-arm... whatever feels right).   Israel, on the other hand, is left to lick its wounds and explain that 'giving peace a chance' is what mature, grown-up nations do when offered the opportunity.

Have I missed anything?

Think back to the main terms of the cease fire (United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701) which ended the second Lebanon war:

1.  Israel to withdraw all of its forces from Lebanon:  CHECK
2.  Disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon (implying Hezbollah):  NOPE
3.  No armed forces other than UNIFIL and Lebanese Army (implying Hezbollah will be disbanded):  NOPE
4.  Full control of Lebanon by the government of Lebanon:  NOPE

Other than Israel retreating to a position where it couldn't enforce any of the other terms, none of the other terms were realized or adhered to.  Today, Hezbollah is far stronger than it was before the Second Lebanon War, and is a loaded pistol held to Israel's head by its puppet master; Iran... all because we refused to keep pushing until the enemy was left with no choice but to surrender.

I can assure you that only Israel will adhere to the terms of this most recent cease fire, and that the most serious problem is that the main term to which Israel has agreed is to stop targeted killings of terrorists and armed response to the enemy's violations. 

Instead of direct action against Hamas terrorists, we will now be required to file our protests over any breach of the cease fire terms to a third party.  And this third party will essentially be a soccer referee who has a pocket full of yellow cards, but no red cards.  Stern warnings and strongly written letters will fly like confetti, but Hamas will now be able to act with complete impunity because the third party to which Israel is now obligated to turn (whoever that is), will have no power whatsoever to do more than say, "You're being very naughty... please don't do that again".  

In June of 1940, when the outcome of WWII was far from certain, Winston Churchill's presented his people with a message of inspiration and resolve: 

"Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duty, and so bear ourselves that, if the British Empire and its Commonwealth lasts for a thousand years, men will still say, 'This was their finest hour."

But instead of recognizing the need to finish the battle with even one of the greater enemy's proxy armies, Israel is once again forced to hear a variation of Neville Chamberlains laughable hallucination:

"This morning I had another talk with the German Chancellor, Herr Hitler, and here is the paper which bears his name upon it as well as mine. Some of you, perhaps, have already heard what it contains but I would just like to read it to you: ' ... We regard the agreement signed last night and the Anglo-German Naval Agreement as symbolic of the desire of our two peoples never to go to war with one another again.'  ... My good friends, this is the second time in our history that there has come back from Germany to Downing Street peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. And now I recommend you to go home and sleep quietly in your beds." 

I, for one, will not sleep quietly or well, knowing that this is far from the end of the war, nor even a worthy point in the conflict to stop and praise our valient efforts to date.  It is September of 1938 all over again, and misguided leaders at home and abroad have once again deluded themselves with pipe dreams of peace rather than recognize the looming violence on the rapidly approaching horizon.

I beg my children's forgiveness for the fact that they will certainly have to fight this war again, and perhaps die, because my generation was not wise or brave enough to finish the fight when we had the chance.

As it says on the back of the shampoo bottle:  "Lather, rinse... repeat".

Posted by David Bogner on November 22, 2012 | Permalink


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Sadly, every word of what you have written, David, is absolutely true. How blind do these people have to be before they choose to see? Perhaps they need their own Tel Aviv to come into range, from Iran's 'peaceful nuclear programme'?

Posted by: Ken | Nov 22, 2012 6:13:29 PM

In every war that Israel has fought and been pushed into a ceasefire with promises from the US none of them have been kept. Israel sould have demanded Pollard's release as part of the deal.

Posted by: dave | Nov 22, 2012 6:39:04 PM

Bottom line: The World and some Israelis believe it no longer has the will(not the strength) to absorb casualties and inflict them on the enemy. The enemy has that will and is gaining strength.Israel can talk about red lines with regard to Iran,but where is Israel`s red line on Gaza and Lebanaon. The defensive Iron Dome is great,but where is the its offensive counterpart and the will to use it when clear red lines are crossed.

Posted by: ED | Nov 22, 2012 6:45:00 PM

This post - and the last two or three of ours as well - should be prominently featured on the Op-Ed page of the New York Times... and every other paper in the West. But I won't hold my breath.

Posted by: Elisson | Nov 22, 2012 9:56:02 PM

Your analysis is correct. The only caveat is that we do not know what the price would have been, had we refused to toe the US/Western imposed line. For example, would they have declined to exercise any veto at the UN? Would BDS actions have been approved? Would we eventually have become the universal whipping boy that the old South African regime was? In other words, would they really have thrown Israel under the bus? Maybe we could have toughed it out. But maybe not. It's a horrible position to be in.

I am an optimist, so I am privately hoping that we got something hidden out of the deal. What could it be? A written promise from the USA about dealing with Iran? A guarantee about the PLO resolution at the UN?

And if there is no hidden bonus, I hope - against all the odds - we instead get peace.

But I am a pessimistic optimist...

Posted by: Ellis | Nov 23, 2012 7:51:48 AM

there definitely was an agreement - just like there have been many others before that weren't worth the paper they were written on.

Posted by: Rashaba | Nov 23, 2012 8:52:34 AM

Who stands to gain from the repeated deployment and tweaking of Israel's Iron Dome defense system? I've come to an admittedly cynical and disturbing conclusion: It's about military research & development, arms sales & profits. Israelis is the test territory, Israelis are the test population.

Thus, the Israeli government will allow low level attrition warfare, keeping the conflict just barely within the considerable tolerance and patiences of Israelis. That's why the government would rather absorb the cost of additional sealed rooms -- a bandaid to us, the cost of doing business to them -- rather than simply conquering Gaza.

Hope I'm wrong. But from the boasting I've read re the profits expected once the Iron Dome is perfected, looks logical to me.

Posted by: Glezele Vayne | Nov 23, 2012 1:21:03 PM

After Chamberlain's return from Munich in 1938, Winston Churchill famously said "You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and you will have war."

I'm not claiming that Israel should be accused of dishonor here, but it is quite certain that war will be the eventual outcome from this negotiated peace.

Posted by: ProphetJoe | Nov 24, 2012 9:44:43 PM

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