Bring on R2D2 (and throw out the bums!)

The big news today is the announcement that the Israeli Defense Ministry has decided to take a pass on one of the only fully deployed/fielded solutions available today against the ongoing kassam/ketyusha threat faced by Israel in the south and north.  Instead they have decided in favor of an unproven solution being developed by the Israeli company Raphael that will only be availible in 2011!

It boggles the mind!

There has been a proven close-in anti-missile system called Vulcan Phalanx (naval)/C-RAM(land), available for decades that Israel has studiously ignored (OK, they put it on some of their ships, but then they forget to turn it on during warfare. 

Because of the white-domed radar housing on top of the C-Ram and Phalanx systems, they have been nicknamed R2D2 by more than a few observers.

Here's a view of the naval version*:

And one of the land-based C-RAM version*:

The system works like this:  You switch it on (note to Israel navy).  When the on-board radar detects an incoming object that falls within a preset series of parameters (bearing, closing speed etc.) and determines it to be a threat, it opens up with its 20mm cannon (actually five cannons that rotate like an old-fashioned Gatling gun to increase speed of fire and reduce the overheating of the barrels) and fires a stream of extremely dense high-explosive projectiles at the target in almost unimaginable rapid fire.  It tracks not only the incoming target but also its own projectiles so that it can constantly correct its fire towards the center of the target's mass.  It will not cease fire while there is still even a tiny portion of the target continuing to close on a threatening bearing.

I have seen the naval version of this thing used many times in exercises out at sea.  It is truly awesome to observe... and quite effective.  It fires so rapidly (between 3000-4500 rounds per minute)that the human ear can hardly discern a break between the individual projectiles being fired.  It sounds more like a buzz saw than a machine gun.  It has a success rate of about 70-80%.  Oh, and need I point out that firing bullets at incoming rockets is a hellovalot cheaper than firing rockets at them (as will be the case with Raphael's system).

For those not up on military hardware, here is a little analysis on the potential problems that Israel had to consider when making their decision (don't thank me... I'm a giver):

Problem:  The time-line between identifying a military threat and fielding a proven defense against it is often so long (years!) that by the time you have a proven solution, the threat has either gone away or has morphed into something that the solution can no longer address.

Israel's case: The threats currently being faced by Israel are fairly static having been limited by our enemies' budgetary, technological and logistical constraints to an assortment of rocket/missile threats that fall well within the capabilities of the C-RAM system to address.  In fact, the C-RAM is capable of intercepting far more sophisticated guided missiles that are not yet widely available to our enemies.

Problem:  It has a proven record of 'only' 70-80%.  What about the other 20-30% of missiles?

Israel's Case:  No system currently fielded has a 100% success rate.  In fact, no system that is even in development has anything close to a 70% success rate.  Given that Israel is about to throw money away invest on the low-tech 'solution' of adding concrete reinforcement to all the roofs in Sderot, I think intercepting 70-80% of the incoming rockets would be a welcome step.

Problem:  The C-RAM system can only defend a few hundred square meters which would mean having to purchase quite a few of the units at about $15 million a pop.

Israel's Case:  Given that Sderot (and the northern communities) are not very big, a small array of several C-RAM systems should be able to defend each community against incoming rockets.  Remember, the majority of missiles and rockets are headed into open areas that don't require defending.  Also, as large as $15 million may sound to those of us who work for a living, in terms of military spending it is minuscule.  Not only that, it is a drop in the bucket compared to the cost of developing a new system (such as the home-grown Raphael defense system that has not even been proven to work).

Problem:  What about the projectiles that miss the incoming rockets?  Aren't they going to fall on Gaza's civilian population? And aren't these bullets made of depleted Uranium or some other hazardous material???

Israel's Case:  Even the naval version has stopped using depleted Uranium rounds in favor of Tungsten.  However, the land-based system employs an explosive round that self-destructs if it doesn't hit the target.  This has been measured at 95-99% success.  Given the Palestinian propensity for firing machine guns into the air when they are a) happy; b) sad; and c) angry (i.e. pretty much all the time), any complaints about hunks of metal falling back to earth from the sky would be a tad disingenuous.

Problem:  Our Defense Minister and his advisers seem to have their collective heads up their a$$es.  Or barring that, they seem to be giving priority to lining the pockets of the Israeli defense industry over the immediate need to protect Israeli citizens.

Israel's Case:  Barring a new electoral process and a constitution, this is not likely to change any time soon.  Given that the Israeli population was powerless to remove the leadership directly responsible for the failures of the 2nd Lebanon war (and for Oslo, for that matter)from government and from public life, I doubt that a public uproar over this latest failure to make a rational decision about a proven defense system will have any affect.  Also, because of backlog of pending indictments against the current Prime Minister it may be some time before anyone notices close personal relationship between Olmert and Raphael's Yedidya Ya'ari (who Olmert tried to have placed on the Winograd Commission). ;-)

But we can try.

*  Source