The higher math of relative safety

During the years of the Intifada everyone suddenly became accomplished statisticians.  Instead of sleeping, the darkest hours of the night were spent crunching shaky data and calculating baseless odds.  And in the gray light of the early morning the results of these nocturnal math sessions were used to draw the arbitrary red lines for the coming day:

'I'll take taxis but not buses from now on'

'I'll stay in Tel Aviv and avoid Jerusalem until things get better'

'I'll tell my daughter she can go into coffee shops, but only to make a take-out order'

'I'll wait a few more days without hearing about shooting before I'll visit my cousins in Gilo'

'I'll stay inside the green line until things calm down'

'I'll visit Israel in the winter... it'll be safer without so many tourists there'

...and so on... and so on...

And the funny thing?  Since almost all the people walking around today who made such calculated decisions are still alive to tell the tale... their statistical analysis must have been right on the money! 

Who knew we were such a mathematically-gifted people?!

But what we studiously ignore in our rush to award ourselves a gold star is that there are thousands of people who...

... avoided buses and were maimed or killed waiting for taxis or walking down the sidewalk.

... were blown up in 'safe' Tel Aviv neighborhoods.

... lost loved ones who were in the coffee shot take-out line 'for just a second'.

... miscalculated the intervals between shootings from Beit Jalla into Gilo.

... avoided dangerous places like the west bank, but were torn apart by a bomb at their favorite mall in Natanya.

... watched friends return with beautiful Israeli summer vacation tans, but who had the misfortune of stumbling upon an inexplicable mid-winter terror attack.

Now once again we are lying awake at night recalculating the odds.  We wake up to the morning news and draw our red lines over breakfast, certain that they will save us from the intentions of a determined enemy:

'I won't go to the north this August... better to wait until the fall'

'I won't go out to the shops here in Haifa but I should be safe out on my balcony'

'I'll let the kids play in the garden but not down the street'

... and so on... and so on...

But the truth we refuse to admit is that we are poor at math.  The data on which we are basing our calculations is hopelessly flawed (or non-existent).  Our approach to statistics would be more familiar to a theologian than a mathematician.   We have invented a higher, faith-based form of math... and live our lives devoutly by its rules.

We ignore the inconvenient fact that it is statistically much more dangerous to drive on Israel's overcrowded roads and highways than to do any of the things we now forbid ourselves and our families.   We refuse to accept that the risks we face from hamburgers and cigarettes are statistical certainties compared with the imaginary comfort offered by the foolish red lines we draw in our daily lives.

If we were to allow ourselves to think about such things, we would realize that our odds of 'winning' are really no better than the old ladies' who sit in smoky bingo halls with their good luck charms arrayed on the table in front of them. 

All we know for sure is that, for us, waking up tomorrow to recalculate the odds and draw a new set of red lines is considered a win.

[I wrote this post after the recent arrival of a few dozen refugee families from Haifa and Karmiel to our 'west bank' settlement of Efrat.  These are people for whom a trip into 'the territories' would have once crossed all red lines and flown in the face of their mathematical calculations for safety.  Yet they are now watching in wonder as their children play with perfectly nice settler children on quiet, tree-lined streets in the cool, crisp air of Gush Etzion.  And as they digest this new and puzzling data, they just might be coming to question their statistical definition of relative safety.]