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Thursday, January 27, 2011

Am I the only one who is worried?

Maybe you can chalk it up to three days (and counting) in bed with a fever, but the unrest in some of our neighboring countries is starting to freak me out.

Lebanon's government is toppled by the whims of Hezbollah... only to have a new Prime Minister designate with obvious sympathies to Hezbollah, chosen to form the new government.

Then almost immediately after Lebanon's stability is brought into doubt, Egypt devolves into several days (and still going) of political chaos, bringing Mubarak's government's future into question... and possibly allowing the Muslim Brotherhood a chance to take control.

And at the same time, Al Jezeera - arguably the most influential media organ in the Muslim world - decides that this is the right moment to begin publishing the PA version of Wikileaks; a move designed to destabilize - and perhaps even topple - the Palestinian Authority. If that happened, the power vacuum would quickly be filled by Hamas; another Iranian proxy.

I know I'm not feeling my sharpest at the moment, but I can't help but look at the mental map of this region I carry around in my head, and see orchestrated instability on all sides of my tiny country, except one.

And that remaining country - Syria - is already firmly aligned with the one country that has both motive and means to have sowed the seeds of unrest and instability on all our other frontiers.

This is where you tell me how wrong I am. Really, I could use some reassurance right about now.

Posted by David Bogner on January 27, 2011 | Permalink

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Well, now that you mention it....

Posted by: Dick Stanley | Jan 27, 2011 3:35:17 PM

Don't forget Tunisia.. sorry, that's not very reassuring!

Posted by: Chantal | Jan 27, 2011 5:22:02 PM

Sorry, Egypt in particular is a worry. I question the loyalties of the Army and security forces if the situation gets bloody. Of course, they will always blame Israel for their many problems.

Posted by: ED | Jan 27, 2011 5:29:09 PM

on the good side, theres always jordan!

Posted by: fred | Jan 27, 2011 6:35:14 PM

Netanyahu said that democracies tend to peace, dictatorships tend to war. Perhaps if the new governments is the surrounding countries become more democratic, peace will have a better chance.

Joe5348

Posted by: joe5348 | Jan 27, 2011 8:25:39 PM

Do you ever miss Saddam Hussein?

I do.

As long as Iran believed Iraq to be their principle threat, they did not have the energy to pour into this.

With Iraq gone, it is amazing how quickly a Tehran based caliphate seems to be shaping up.

Posted by: Rich | Jan 28, 2011 3:31:53 PM

Jordan is politically restive, and Turkey is moving into Iran's orbit.....I suspect they see themselves as rivals for the Great Middle East. Syria has never given up on Great Syria, from Basra to Wadi al-Arish.

Can't reassure you. I'm having the same jitters, sans fever. If people aren't worried, then they're delusional.

Posted by: aliyah06 | Jan 30, 2011 10:49:03 PM

Of course Israel has every reason to be worried about political instability on its borders. But with all the skeletons now emerging from Mubarak's cupboards, it would be madness for Israel not to distance itself from him. There is a lot of legitimate anger against him and there remains a chance, a precious chance, that Egypt might end up with a form of government that would be sympathetic to the true principles of democracy.

The evil that men do lives after them. The good is - well, put it this way, President Mubarak has a fair few critics in Egypt today. I'm sure you're concerned about some of them, and there will no doubt be future diplomatic issues whatever happens, but it would surely be in Israel's best interests to hope for an outcome that complies with the wishes of the Egyptian people.

Sincere best wishes to you and to all on your comments board.

PS I dare say Saddam Hussein had his uses, but I think Rich is deluded in missing him.

Posted by: dododecleansed :) | Feb 9, 2011 1:41:24 AM

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